What a difference a year can make. Right around this time in 2020, we all gathered around our televisions to witness Bong Joon-Ho’s “Parasite” dominate the Academy Awards competition, and all felt right with the world. One trip around the sun later and it’s hard to believe that that awards show was one of the last memories we would have from a pre-quarantine life.
For all the changes that have happened over the last year, the movies have been there for us through it all. Even though we haven’t gotten our fix of Marvel or James Bond quite yet, 2020 was nonetheless packed with powerhouse cinema. With the smell of awards season filling the air yet again (albeit delayed this time), it’s time take a look at the films gunning for recognition, and decide who we at The Movie Buff think is going to take home those distinctive golden statues on April 25th.
Author’s Note: This article was written in early February, meaning that not only has the Academy not announced nominations yet, but some of the films have yet to release to the public. As such, we are all only here to speculate, have some fun, and hopefully give you some film recommendations. I will also be outlining the long-shot nominations and “Author’s Pick” for each category, and providing brief write-ups for the main categories.
BEST PICTURE:
Predicted Nominees:
- “Da 5 Bloods” (Netflix)
- “The Father” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- “Judas and the Black Messiah” (HBO/Warner)
- “Mank” (Netflix)
- “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” (Netflix)
- “Minari” (A24)
- “Nomadland” (Searchlight Pictures)
- “One Night in Miami” (Amazon Studios)
- “Promising Young Woman” (Focus Features)
- “The Trial of the Chicago 7” (Netflix)
Longshots:
- “The Forty-Year-Old-Version” (Netflix)
- “Never Rarely Sometimes Always” (Focus Features)
- “News of the World” (Universal Pictures)
- “Sound of Metal” (Amazon Studios)
- “The United States vs. Billie Holiday” (Hulu)
Predicted Winner:
- “Nomadland”
Author’s Pick:
- “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
At the time of this writing, all major publications point to one of two contenders to take home the coveted BP: “Nomadland” and “Da 5 Bloods.” Chloé Zhao’s “Nomadland” has racked up a laundry list of awards and nominations in advance of the film’s release in mid-February and has been the film to beat for the last couple of months. Alternately, “Bloods,” Spike Lee’s Vietnam saga, recently nabbed the Best Picture award from the National Board of Review and has been gaining momentum thanks to its politically relevant themes and its outstanding cast which features the late, great Chadwick Boseman. A24’s “Minari” could prove to be a dark horse in this race as well, with the recent win of “Parasite” fresh in the Academy’s minds, coupled with a dazzling 100% Rotten Tomatoes score.
My personal pick for ‘Best Picture,’ though, goes to “The Trial of the Chicago 7.” In an era of increasing unrest in just about every aspect of American society, this film shines an uncompromising light on just how far forces in power are willing to go to maintain that power, and the actions that an everyday person can take to make a difference. Throw in an awards-worthy supporting performance from Sacha Baron Cohen and Sorkin’s trademark snappy dialogue, and “The Trial of the Chicago 7” is an absolute knockout.
BEST DIRECTOR:
Predicted Nominees:
- Spike Lee – “Da 5 Bloods”
- Chloé Zhao – “Nomadland”
- David Fincher – “Mank”
- Lee Isaac Chung – “Minari”
- Emerald Fennell – “Promising Young Woman”
Longshots:
- George C. Wolfe – “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
- Paul Greengrass – “News of the World”
- Regina King – “One Night in Miami”
- Aaron Sorkin – “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Predicted Winner:
- Spike Lee – “Da 5 Bloods”
Author’s Pick:
- Spike Lee – “Da 5 Bloods”
With “Da 5 Bloods,” Spike Lee is poised to prove that “Blackkklansman’s” Academy success was not just a fluke. Having won Best Director with the National Board of Review and with the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice Awards on the horizon, the stage is set for Spike Lee to bolster his momentum and snatch the lead from current favorite Chloé Zhao. No black director has ever won this award, but it looks like Spike Lee’s time may have finally arrived.
Author’s Pick also goes to “Da 5 Bloods.” It’s time for The Academy to recognize that they have gone far too long without getting Spike Lee a Best Director Oscar. Many would argue that this has been needed since “Do the Right Thing” all the way back in 1989. Zhao could very well run away with this one (and it would be difficult to be disappointed), but this truly does feel like Spike Lee’s year.
BEST ACTRESS:
Predicted Nominees:
- Zendaya – “Malcolm & Marie” (Netflix)
- Viola Davis – “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
- Frances McDormand – “Nomadland”
- Carey Mulligan – “Promising Young Woman”
- Andra Day – “The United States vs. Billie Holiday”
Longshots:
- Amy Adams – “Hillbilly Elegy” (Netflix)
- Jessie Buckley – “I’m Thinking of Ending Things” (Netflix)
- Meryl Streep – “Let Them All Talk” (HBO/Warner) OR “The Prom” (Netflix)
- Vanessa Kirby – “Pieces of a Woman” (Netflix)
Predicted Winner:
- Viola Davis – “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Author’s Pick:
- Andra Day – “The United States vs. Billie Holiday”
With Viola Davis and Andra Day as jazz divas Ma Rainey and Billie Holiday respectively, the Best Actress race might as well be decided by a “Pitch Perfect” style sing-off. Both could easily take the award home, but right now indications are pointing toward Viola Davis’ imposing yet soulful turn as Ma Rainey. Her presence is as powerhouse and commanding as always and will probably be able to beat career-best roles from Mulligan, Zendaya, and Kirby. The dark horse designation, though, goes to McDormand.
Author’s Pick belongs to Andra Day. “US v BH” has not released at the time of writing, but if early reactions are to be believed, though, Andra Day’s commanding performance is a consistent north star for a film that risks losing its way. Holiday’s story—and its remarkable relationship to current drug legislation—is one that has gone grossly unexamined in American culture outside of this film’s source material, Johann Hari’s revelatory book “Chasing the Scream.” If Day can bring Billie’s tragedy to life for audiences, it will be eye-opening.
BEST ACTOR:
Predicted Nominees:
- Delroy Lindo – “Da 5 Bloods”
- Anthony Hopkins – “The Father”
- Chadwick Boseman – “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
- Steven Yeun – “Minari”
- Riz Ahmed – “Sound of Metal”
Longshots:
- Mads Mikkelsen – “Another Round” (Nordisk Film)
- LaKeith Stanfield – “Judas and the Black Messiah” (Bron Creative)
- Gary Oldman – “Mank”
- Kingsley Ben-Adir – “One Night in Miami” (ABCKO Films)
Predicted Winner:
- Chadwick Boseman – “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Author’s Pick:
- Chadwick Boseman – “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Out of all the races this year, this one is probably the closest to a sure thing. “Ma Rainey’s” is Boseman’s final performance, and most critics have proclaimed it his best. It is common for actors to win posthumously if they pass away before awards season as a way of tributing immense talent lost, but even in this tremendously stacked category, it is hard to deny that Boseman’s performance is anything but Oscar-worthy.
You will find no disagreement from this author. Chadwick brought such dynamism to the character of Levee Green, this felt like it was the role he was born to play. Of course, it felt like he was born to play James Brown, Jackie Robinson, and King T’Challa too. He never gave less than 110% in every role, and the Academy would be out of their minds to miss their final opportunity to recognize the magnitude of his talent.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Predicted Nominees:
- Maria Bakalova – “Borat: Subsequent Moviefilm” (Amazon Studios)
- Oliva Colman – “The Father” (Trademark Films)
- Glenn Close – “Hillbilly Elegy”
- Amanda Seyfried – “Mank”
- Yuh-Jung Youn – “Minari”
Longshots:
- Saoirse Ronan – “Ammonite” (Neon)
- Dominique Fishback – “Judas and the Black Messiah”
- Marissa Tomei – “The King of Staten Island” (Universal Pictures)
- Ellen Burstyn – “Pieces of a Woman”
Predicted Winner:
- Amanda Seyfried – “Mank”
Author’s Pick:
- Maria Bakalova – “Borat: Subsequent Moviefilm”
The muted Oscar buzz for “Mank” has got to be disappointing for Netflix and David Fincher. At one time this type of black-and-white, old Hollywood-styled feature about old Hollywood would be the de facto frontrunner, yet for whatever reason it has continued to fade from public consciousness. The one aspect of the film that is still mentioned with excitement, though, is Amanda Seyfried’s performance as superstar Marion Davies. This has been the one to beat ever since the first reviews for “Mank” dropped. While far from a sure thing (Colman, Close, and Burstyn are Oscar darlings after all), it is entirely possible that Seyfried brings home “Mank’s” sole Academy Award.
This author wants to see Bakalova take it. She is almost certain to be nominated, but I just can’t imagine The Academy allowing the words “Oscar winner “Borat: Subsequent Moviefilm” to exist in a sentence. Regardless, Bakalova’s conviction to her role in every scene whether scripted, improvised, or scandalous was a revelation and showcased some of the finest acting of the entire year.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Predicted Nominees:
- Chadwick Boseman – “Da 5 Bloods”
- Daniel Kaluuya – “Judas and the Black Messiah”
- Leslie Odom Jr. – “One Night in Miami”
- Paul Raci – “Sound of Metal”
- Sacha Baron Cohen – “The Trial of the Chicago 7″
Longshots:
- Glynn Thurman – “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
- David Straithairn – “Nomadland”
- Bill Murray – “On the Rocks” (Apple TV+)
- Mark Rylance, Eddie Redmayne, and/or Yahya Abdul-Mateen II – “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Predicted Winner:
- Daniel Kaluuya – “Judas and the Black Messiah”
Author’s Pick:
- Sacha Baron Cohen – “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Daniel Kaluuya as Fred Hampton looks the most poised to take the Oscar for Supporting Actor this year. Interestingly, Fred Hampton is also a character in the film starring Kaluuya’s main competitor – Sacha Baron Cohen in “The Trial of the Chicago 7.” The award could rightfully go either way, but Kaluuya’s fierce commitment to the role gives him the edge here.
As far as Author’s Pick, I am completely fine with Kaluuya or Cohen winning. Cohen is remarkable in a role that channels his madcap comedic persona and reigns it into a story and character that are perfect for his talent. What gives Cohen the edge for me personally is the fact that it would be adorable to see Sacha Baron Cohen and Maria Bakalova run away with both supporting awards. I do kind of hope to see that.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Predicted Nominees:
- “Da 5 Bloods”
- “Mank”
- “Never Rarely Sometimes Always”
- “Promising Young Woman”
- “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Longshots:
- “The Forty-Year-Old-Version”
- “Judas and the Black Messiah”
- “Malcolm & Marie”
- “Minari”
Predicted Winner:
- “Promising Young Woman”
Author’s Pick:
- “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
It’s likely to be a tight race between Aaron Sorkin’s “Chicago 7” and Emerald Fennell’s “Promising Young Woman” for the Best Original Screenplay win. Sorkin’s work is always dazzling but this has not always translated to wins for him, meanwhile Fennell is riding a tsunami of buzz and screenplay nominations for her debut feature. If the buzz can sustain until April, “Promising Young Woman” should pull out the win.
Author’s Pick, since I haven’t yet seen “Promising Young Woman,” is going to go to “Chicago 7.” I’m a sucker for Sorkin dialogue and this film is over two hours of Sorkin dialogue. Count me in.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Predicted Nominees:
- “First Cow” (A24)
- “I’m Thinking of Ending Things”
- “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
- “Nomadland”
- “One Night in Miami”
Longshots:
- “Borat: Subsequent Moviefilm”
- “The Father”
- “News of the World” (Perfect World Pictures)
- “White Tiger” (Netflix)
Predicted Winner:
- “Nomadland”
Author’s Pick:
- “I’m Thinking of Ending Things”
“Nomadland” has the lead; Chloé Zhao’s road trip drama has infatuated critics across the board and is riding a wave of buzz and pre-wide-release hype right now. The reality, though, is that as it stands, Best Adapted Screenplay could go to any of the above films, including dark horse “News of the World,” which just won Best Adapted Screenplay from the National Board of Review.
Charlie Kaufman’s “I’m Thinking of Ending Things” secures Author’s Pick for being easily the weirdest film on the list. Kaufman’s adaptation of Iain Reid’s novel truly captures the feeling of a waking nightmare, always opting to be more unsettling and uncanny than abjectly terrifying. It’s a disorienting and often bruising watch, but makes for one of the most interesting films of 2021.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:
Predicted Nominees:
- “Onward” (Disney/Pixar)
- “Soul” (Disney/Pixar)
- “Wolfwalkers” (Apple TV+)
- “Over the Moon” (Netflix)
- “Earwig and the Witch” (Studio Ghibli)
Longshots:
- “No. 7 Cherry Lane” (Far Sun Films)
- “Lupin III: The First” (GKIDS)
- “Trolls: World Tour” (DreamWorks Animation/Universal Pictures)
Predicted Winner:
- “Soul”
Author’s Pick:
- “Wolfwalkers” (Apple Original Films)
As with most years, the Best Animated Feature category is Disney’s to lose. If they only came to the table with “Onward,” their dominance would be less assured and Apple TV may have been able to nip at their heels with “Wolfwalkers.” However, with the release of “Soul” late last year, Disney seems to have secured the trophy again. Notably presenting existential themes in a way that is consumable to viewers of all ages, “Soul” was a smash hit and unanimous critical darling. The Academy might as well ship Pixar their Oscar now.
While the mega-studio’s reputation for high-caliber entertainment is well-earned and their animation only gets lusher and more gorgeous by the day, the smaller features are often where you find the most innovation. The 2D animated feature “Wolfwalkers” takes its cues from Celtic legend and boasts one of the most unique art styles I have ever seen in animation. It may not have the same level of polish as something from The Mouse, but it brings a lot more character, and deserves be recognized.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
Predicted Nominees:
- “Boys State” (Apple TV+)
- “Crip Camp: A Disability Revolution” (Netflix)
- “Dick Johnson is Dead” (Netflix)
- “Time” (Amazon Studios)
- “The Truffle Hunters” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Longshots:
- “76 Days” (MTV Documentary Films)
- “All In: The Fight for Democracy” (Amazon Studios)
- “The Dissident” (Briarcliff Entertainment)
- “Welcome to Chechnya” (HBO Documentary Films)
Predicted Winner:
- “Time”
Author’s Pick:
- “Boys State”
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE:
Predicted Nominees:
- “Another Round” (“Druk”) (Denmark)
- “Charlatan” (“Šarlatán”) (Czech Republic)
- “Collective” (“Colectiv”) (Romania)
- “I’m No Longer Here” (“Ya no estoy aqui”) (Mexico)
- “Two of Us” (“Deux”) (France)
Longshots:
- “Apples” (“Mila”) (Greece)
- “A Sun” (“陽光普照”, “Yángguāng Pǔzhào”) (Taiwan)
- “The Mole Agent” (“El agente topo”) (Chile)
- “My Little Sister” (“Schwesterlein”) (Switzerland)
Predicted Winner:
- “Another Round” (“Druk”)
Author’s Pick:
- “Another Round” (“Druk”)
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
Predicted Nominees:
- “Da 5 Bloods”
- “Nomadland”
- “Mank”
- “News of the World”
- “Tenet” (Warner Bros.)
Longshots:
- “Judas and the Black Messiah”
- “The Midnight Sky” (Netflix)
- “Minari”
- “One Night in Miami”
Predicted Winner:
- “Nomadland”
Author’s Pick:
- “Tenet”
BEST FILM EDITING:
Predicted Nominees:
- “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
- “News of the World”
- “Nomadland”
- “Sound of Metal”
- “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Longshots:
- “Da 5 Bloods”
- “The Father”
- “Judas and the Black Messiah”
- “Mank”
Predicted Winner:
- “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Author’s Pick:
- “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
BEST COSTUME DESIGN:
Predicted Nominees:
- “Emma” (Focus Features)
- “Mank”
- “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
- “Mulan” (Disney+)
- “The United States vs Billie Holiday”
Longshots:
- “Ammonite”
- “News of the World”
- “One Night in Miami”
- “The Personal History of David Copperfield” (Searchlight Pictures)
Predicted Winner:
- “Emma”
Author’s Pick:
- “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
BEST SET DESIGN:
- “Mank”
- “News of the World”
- “One Night in Miami”
- “The Personal History of David Copperfield”
- “Tenet”
Longshots:
- “Emma”
- “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
- “The Midnight Sky”
- “Mulan”
Predicted Winner:
- “Mank”
Author’s Pick:
- “Emma”
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
Predicted Nominees:
- “Greyhound” (Apple TV+)
- “The Invisible Man” (Universal Pictures)
- “The Midnight Sky”
- “Tenet”
- “Wonder Woman 1984” (HBO/Warner)
Longshots:
- “Birds of Prey” (Warner Bros.)
- “Mank”
- “Mulan”
- “Sonic the Hedgehog” (Paramount Pictures)
Predicted Winner:
- “Tenet”
Author’s Pick:
- “Tenet”
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING:
Predicted Nominees:
- “Bill & Ted Face the Music” (United Artists Releasing)
- “Hillbilly Elegy”
- “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
- “Promising Young Woman”
- “The United States vs Billie Holiday”
Longshots:
- “Borat: Subsequent Moviefilm”
- “Mank”
- “News of the World”
- “The Prom”
Predicted Winner:
- “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Author’s Pick:
- “Bill & Ted Face the Music”
BEST ORIGINAL SONG:
Predicted Nominees:
- “Husavik (My Hometown)” – “Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga” (Netflix)
- “Fight For You” – “Judas and the Black Messiah”
- “Io Sì (Seen)” – “The Life Ahead” (Netflix)
- “Speak Now” – “One Night in Miami”
- “Rocket to the Moon” – “Over the Moon” (Netflix”
Longshots:
- “Wuhan Flu” – “Borat: Subsequent Moviefilm”
- “Rain Song” – “Minari”
- “Wear Your Crown” – “The Prom”
- “Just Sing” – “Trolls: World Tour”
Predicted Winner:
- “Speak Now” – “One Night in Miami”
Author’s Pick:
- “Speak Now” – “One Night in Miami”
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:
Predicted Nominees:
- “Da 5 Bloods”
- “Mank”
- “The Midnight Sky”
- “Minari”
- “Soul”
Longshots:
- “The Life Ahead” (Palomar)
- “News of the World”
- “Tenet”
- “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Predicted Winner:
- “Soul”
Author’s Pick:
- “Soul”
BEST SOUND:
Predicted Nominees:
- “Mank”
- “The Midnight Sky”
- “Soul”
- “Sound of Metal”
- “Tenet”
Longshots:
- “Greyhound”
- “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
- “News of the World”
- “The Outpost”(Millennium Media)
Predicted Winner:
- “Sound of Metal”
Author’s Pick:
- “Sound of Metal”
You’re still here?? That was a lot of ground to cover, and we’ve still got months to go before even nominations are locked in. Until then, feel free to sound off in the comments below with your thoughts, theories, predictions, and wild speculations. Happy Awards Season from The Movie Buff!
*The 93rd Academy Awards are scheduled for April 25, 2021.
